Aug 26 2012
By Fatih Abdulsalam
Azzaman, August 26, 2012
The Syrian crisis has two decisive ways to solve and both of them are not possible.
A political solution is much overdue as the parties have already missed its deadlines so many times, despite dim hopes of reviving the process following the appointment of a new U.N. envoy Lakhdar Brahimi.
Militarily, it is not possible for warplanes, helicopter gunships, tanks and troops to defeat opponents President Bashar Assad, after more than a year and half of military operations. The fighting has turned in tit-for-tat and guerrilla tactics on the part of opposition fighters.
In the midst of a conflict with no decisive outcome in sight militarily or otherwise, one can point to two important facts. The first concerns the loosening of Assad’s grip on the country as a whole. The second, is his government’s inability to orchestrate massive marches of support in major Syrian towns, including Damascus.
It seems that even those who have been supportive of the government have become tired of a warlike situation that has been dragging on longer than expected.
What is it that will lead to a change in a situation that has stagnated so far?
Probably the alternative that will tilt the balance in the current situation is the possibility of imposing a no-fly zone inside Syria, which rebels and those fleeing the fighting will take as a safe-haven.
If the situation develops towards a ban on flights by military aircraft over a specific area inside Syria, the U.N. envoy Brahimi might find that even the little light that he thought existed at the end of the Syrian tunnel is no longer there.
The process along which conditions in Syria are developing points to a situation in which there is almost no hope for an outcome that will see an end to bloodshed.
So much blood has been shed to the extent that it has become increasingly hard to make the parties realize that they need to put morality and national interests above rancor and hatred.
From this perspective I see that Brahimi has undertaken a mission that looks impossible to achieve.
The Syrian file is no longer in Syrian hands. It is in the hands of regional and international powers.
It is these powers which are playing with the Syrian card in a calculated and well-thought of manner that is meant to lead to chaos in the region – the chaos that started with the invasion of Iraq and is still going on.
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