Aug 16 2012
By Fatih Abdulsalam
Azzaman, August 16, 2012
The countries involved in the crisis in Syria and those keeping a close eye on the situation there are all planning for the post-President Bashar al-Assad era. However there are some regional states with special calculations. These countries think that Assad’s government might stay in power for at least two or more years.
The probability of the regime eventually falling is closer to reality than its staying. The question is whether regional states, particularly those bordering Syria, are taking that in to serious consideration.
Jordan has lost almost all its commercial transactions and links with Syria, and is considering the emergence of new realities on the ground.
Iraq’s stand vis-à-vis the conflict is different. Iraq’s Syria policy toes that of Iran, therefore Baghdad has emerged as a strong supporter of Assad. Only Iraqi Kurds have demonstrated a different attitude that runs contrary to the government in Baghdad.
Kurds have geopolitical interests and believe the fall of Assad will bring them closer to the realization of their dream of having a state of their own on their relatively prosperous region in northern Iraq.
Turkey is certainly the biggest player in the Syrian game. It is the country which, right from the very start of the crisis, wanted to see change and transformation in the Syrian political scene.
Turkey entertains doubts about the sincerity of Assad regarding the Kurdish card in Syria and his links with Kurdistan Workers Party, the Turkish Kurdish rebel group. Ankara did not trust Bashar’s father Hafez al-Assad who skillfully manipulated the Kurdish card, and it seems there is no reason for it to have faith in his son.
It is therefore no surprise to see Turkey having no second thoughts about the regime’s downfall and it has acted accordingly.
But what is strange and illogical is the attitude of Assad himself. Does he really believe he can weather the massive onslaught on his regime and that his use of disproportionate force will compel his adversaries to lay down their arms?
The lesson from history, which Assad should have thought of carefully, is that he probably has no chance as did other leaders before him like Saddam Hussein, Hosni Mobarak, Muammar Gaddaif, Zein al-Abideen Bin Ali and Ali Abdullah Saleh.
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