Aug 7 2012
By Fatih Abdulsalam
Azzaman, August 7, 2012
Will the regime of President Bashar al-Assad collapse following the defection of Syrian Prime Minister Riad Hijab to the opposition?
The answer is easy for observers with knowledge about regimes which evolve around one person or a family circle as is the situation in Syria.
A regime like Syria has one lung. This lung survives because it relies on its own military, security and financial depots.
But the U.S. seems to have got nothing to say but to tell us that the regime’s days are numbered or it is collapsing.
This type of American naivety we have become accustomed to since it started its 2003-occupation of Iraq which turned the country into ruins and as if that was not enough it handed it over to radical and corruptive factions.
The importance of Hijab’s defection lies in the way it was carried out. For a senior official of his stature to flee the country without being detected by security and intelligences organs means that the opposition is far ahead of the government when it comes to issues of penetration and secret services.
The defection is an indication of the inertia and weakness of the Syrian security forces. It shows how isolated the Syrian president has become from his civil servants.
But it is important to note that the iron grip is in place and has not weakened and Assad and his military are determined to fight to the last bullet.
Ministers, senior officials and prime ministers, outside the framework of this iron grip, are merely civil servants and do not play effective roles in the inner circle.
Besides, there are no indications that the Syrian opposition is going to capitalize on the high-level defections to pave the way for a transitory period.
And we need to remember that any transition, with the regime and its military and police disbanded, is bound to create a situation like that of Iraq, which descended into chaos shortly after the U.S. occupation.
There are signs that the hell that was Iraq is creeping into Syria and for sure there will be elements who will utilize a situation like this for their own benefits.
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