Jul 20 2012

How to explain what is happening in Syria

By Fatih Abdusalam

Azzaman, July 20, 2012

The latest developments in Syria might have come as a shock to many observers, particularly the explosion that claimed the lives of three of the most senior of the country’s military and security officials among them the defense minister

Despite the incredible magnitude and impact of the recent events in Damascus, the capital, it is wrong to assume that the government there has lost control or it is on its way to collapse.

The military, security and logistic balance still weighs favorably on behalf of the government and is far more advanced in terms of quality and quantity than what is available to forces opposing it.

The regime is not finished but at the same time the operation that claimed the lives of its best minds cannot be but a qualitative development that is already pointing to directions that were not there a few weeks or even days ago.

One would have thought the regime in Damascus had prepared itself well for such operations, particularly as the opposition forces were openly bragging just a few days earlier about something big to happen in the capital Damascus.

The question is how come that a security-conscious regime like that of President Bashar al-Assad did not take these warnings into account?

One can see the loss the regime suffered from two distinct viewpoints. First, the regime has surely lost the expertise the officials killed in the operation had accumulated. Second, with their demise the files, old and new of Syria’s bloodiest chapter, might have been buried too.

One other important issue is to watch who would replace the officials the regime have lost. There is certainly a lower rank of officers or security officials who have been groomed to step in, in the absence of their superiors.

Whatever misgivings, certainties, conspiracy theories and guesses one may have about what happened in Damascus two days ago, one thing is almost crystal clear. If we take the conspiracy theory aside, the situation points to huge gap in the structure upon which the regime’s iron fist is based.

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