Jul 3 2012

World will fail to solve Syria crisis with Assad at the helm

By Fatih Abdulsalam

July 3, 2012

President Bashar al-Assad of Syria is bent on an internal mechanism focused on cracking down on protests and the military activities of the Free Syrian Army fighting.

Assad’s views and police diverge completely from what goes on in the corridors of the United Nations and the schemes that are being contemplated to put a halt to bloodshed among them the six-point plan drawn by U.N. and Arab League envoy Kofi Annan.

The wide gap becomes so obvious if one views the events taking place in Syria within the context of the decisions Assad took on Monday.

The rulings reinstate or rather reintroduce the state of emergency but in a different guise as they slap sentences of up to 20 years and even execution for anyone suspected of carrying out ‘terror’ attacks against the government.

Then there are military operations by air and land by forces loyal to Assad. We have not heard a single politician voicing concern about civilian casualties. Here we are not talking about military casualties from both sides – the government and the opposition.

The element of time seems to be the factor on which the regime in Syria has been relying. Annan’s plan whether within the U.N. or Geneva framework requires at least one year to be implemented, the timeframe Assad thinks he needs for settle the crisis militarily.

Hence one can see why the Syrian government is opposing the outcome of the Geneva meeting. It thinks it bypasses the time framework it has in mind for the crisis to subside.

Given these considerations, there is no doubt that any international plan to solve the Syria crisis is doomed to failure. It is this fact which I have been stressing in my articles about what is happening in Syria, though some commentators reacted by saying that I was taking a big risk by jumping to conclusions.

I am not fond of forgone conclusions. My forecast is based on the reality of the situation in Syria where the whole regime spins around Assad as a ‘symbol’ and ‘destiny.’

The formation of a transitional government with elements from the old guard as well as opposition personalities without Assad as laid down in Geneva is  something impossible to happen. Assad shall not agree to any mechanism that distances him from the political arena.

Assad draws his strength from the determination to go to use his military and security forces to the last minute relying on his alliance with Russia and Iran even if he only had the capital Damascus under his control.

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